Fresh food in a warming world – why your fruits and vegetables cost more

Drought, heat, and supply disruptions are changing the future of fruits and vegetables, explains one of Ottawa’s most experienced fresh produce retailers.

IRVING SWEDKO

SUPPLIED PHOTO Consumers cannot control the weather or global fresh produce supply chains, but they can adjust how they shop and how they use what they buy, says long-time Ottawa grocer, Irving Swedko.

The price of fruits and vegetables has always been influenced by weather – but what we are now witnessing is not normal variation. It is instead the growing impact of climate change that is beginning to reshape not only what we pay for produce, but what is available, when, and from where.

We have entered a period where extreme heat, erratic rainfall, prolonged droughts, and the diminishing snowpack in key growing regions are all converging simultaneously across different parts of the world. By the time this article is published, the effects may be even more visible – empty shelves in some categories, oversupply in others, and significant price swings depending on origin.

Agriculture depends on balance. Too much rain can be just as damaging as too little. Heat can accelerate growth in some crops yet destroy others. The loss of mountain snowpack – once a reliable, slow-release water source – means that many farming regions will face water shortages at critical growing stages.

Understanding which crops are most vulnerable – and which may temporarily benefit – helps explain what consumers will soon experience at retail.

Get to know product vulnerability

Crops that require consistent water and are highly vulnerable to drought include leafy greens such as lettuce and spinach, celery, strawberries, broccoli, cauliflower, and citrus. These crops depend on steady moisture, and even short periods of stress can affect both yield and quality.

Other crops can tolerate heat but still require controlled watering. Tomatoes, peppers, and eggplant fall into this category. They may survive higher temperatures, but extreme heat or irregular watering will impact taste, texture, and overall production.

There are also crops that depend on cooler climates and are particularly threatened by rising temperatures. Apples, cherries, and grapes require periods of cold weather to develop properly. Warmer winters and sudden heat spikes can significantly reduce both quality and volume.

Some crops are more drought-tolerant, though not immune. Potatoes, onions, garlic, and melons can withstand drier conditions to a degree, but prolonged extremes will still affect supply.

One of the least discussed but most critical issues is the decline in snowpack in growing regions, such as the western United States. Snowpack acts as a natural reservoir, feeding rivers and irrigation systems well into the growing season. With less snow and earlier melt, farmers face water shortages just when crops need it most.

The result of all these factors is not simply higher prices, but volatility – sharp increases, sudden drops, and inconsistent quality.

While much of the discussion focuses on the farm, the most visible impact will occur at the retail level. Supermarkets are the final link in a long and increasingly strained supply chain, and they must react quickly. Major retailers such as Loblaws, Costco, Walmart, and Metro, approach produce differently, but they all face the same challenge: maintaining quality, supply, and price stability in an unstable environment.

In response, retailers are shifting sourcing regions more frequently, turning to different states or countries when one area is affected.

Increased reliance on imports

As domestic crops face extreme weather, retailers are increasingly turning to imports to fill gaps. Canadian consumers are already seeing more fruit and vegetables from Mexico, South America, or even Europe, depending on season and availability. Imported produce often comes at higher cost due to transportation, fuel, tariffs, and handling. Imported produce also introduces variability in taste, freshness, and shelf life. When weather disrupts production in one country, delays can ripple across borders, affecting what ends up on shelves weeks later. Consumers may notice these differences in both price and quality, making awareness of origin even more important.

Retailers are also dealing with higher costs, sometimes absorbing them temporarily, but more often passing them on to consumers. Quality standards may be tested as supply tightens. Transportation delays, storage limitations, and uneven ripening during transit all add another layer of unpredictability.

Consumers will notice more frequent and sometimes unpredictable price changes. Weekly specials may disappear on certain items, while others suddenly become plentiful and well-priced due to supply shifts from different growing regions.

Flexibility is key for consumers

So, what can the average consumer do about all this? We cannot control the weather or global supply chains. But we can adjust how we shop and how we use what we buy.

Flexibility becomes key. Shopping based on what looks good and is reasonably priced that week, rather than sticking to a fixed list, can make a significant difference. Paying attention to where produce comes from can also give insight into quality and shelf life.

Buying smaller quantities more often may help reduce waste, especially as some produce may not last as long under these changing conditions. Using the freezer for items such as berries or cut vegetables can also help manage costs over time.

Consumers may also need to become less focused on perfect appearance. Produce affected by weather may look slightly different but still offer good value and taste.

Most importantly, reducing waste at home becomes essential. As prices rise, throwing out spoiled produce is more costly than ever. Better storage, meal planning, and using what you have can go a long way.

Produce stability no longer a given

In my years in the produce business, I have seen cycles – good seasons, bad seasons, shortages, and surpluses. That has always been part of the industry. What feels different now is not just the cycle, but the intensity and frequency of the changes. Weather patterns are less predictable, growing regions are under more pressure, and the stability we once took for granted is no longer a given.

This does not mean the end of quality produce or empty shelves across the board. It does mean adjustment – at every level. Growers will adapt, retailers will adjust, and consumers will need to become more aware and flexible.

Fruits and vegetables will always remain an essential part of a healthy diet. What may change is how we think about them – not as fixed items always available at predictable prices, but as products of nature, influenced by forces beyond anyone’s control. Shopping habits will have to change.